Published: April 11, 2022

Relevant Strategies

• International Balanced
• International Growth
• Natural Resources
• Gold and Precious Metals
• Peter Schiff

Our Commentary

Market overview

Although stock markets improved during March, most remain lower year-to-date with some European markets and global growth sectors registering double-digit percentage declines. The only major developed stock market to be in the black year-to-date is the FTSE 100 which is registering a 2.9% increase. In contrast, the UK mid-cap index is 9.4% lower and the MSCI Europe (Ex UK) index has declined by 7.8%, having been particularly affected by the war and the impact of reduced access to energy supplies.

Despite the increasingly confrontational political rhetoric into the new year, only a minority of investors really believed a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent and the shock move raised the specter of World War III, a worst-case scenario that is not yet out of the question. In recent days, stock markets have found new optimism in any signs that talks between the two countries may result in a ceasefire. News that Russia would “retreat” from armed conflict in Kyiv and focus on the eastern territories saw stock markets rally into the final days of the quarter.

Commodities soar

In response to the Ukraine crisis, commodity prices have soared, with oil reaching $130 a barrel and prompting predictions it could reach as high as $200. Natural gas also rose further as the world came to grips with just how dependent Europe is on the gas supplied by Russia, as evidenced by the fact that the stringent and far-reaching sanctions imposed on Russia excluded energy commodities.

The biggest surprise was the surge in nickel prices to $100,000 a ton and a halt in trading due to the unprecedented short squeeze, highlighting the dislocations that can occur when geopolitical shocks emerge.

The war has also wrought havoc in the grain and fertilizer markets that could have long-standing impacts, including dire food shortages in low-income countries. Already producers are raising prices or seeking to reduce their use of these inputs in response to the restricted supply and steep price increases. Reductions in fertilizer usage in the upcoming planting seasons could see yields decline and so the vicious cycle of scarcity could intensify.

The war on inflation

In the last commentary, inflation is one of the main concerns derived from the Conflict’s escalation. Overshadowed by inflation fears, food and energy price now likely to spiral off already 40-year US inflation highs. The graph below highlights how economists are ratcheting up their inflation forecasts for the OECD countries – to 5.1% currently from the 1.5% expected this year when economists made their predictions in early 2021.

The sharp turnaround from what the Fed expected to be transitory inflation last year to the potential for a return to 1970s inflation highs has resulted in far more hawkish central bank stances in the first quarter of this year. The Fed’s March meeting saw interest rate projections catch up with the more hawkish expectations of the market. The graph below shows a significant shift upwards in the implied Fed funds rate as measured in 12-month future contracts, with consensus expectations now for at least six rate hikes this year and three next. The prospect of a couple of outsized 50-basis point increases is now being factored in, with US central bank messaging paving the way for one at the next meeting.

Such an aggressive response to inflation pressures arising out of the pandemic – and now accentuated by the war – has also raised growing concerns that rate hikes will stall the world economy or even drive certain regions into recession, reintroducing the stagflation that haunted the world in the 1970s.

These fears increased in the final week of the quarter as the two-to-10-year area of the US yield curve inverted. History indicates such an inversion (i.e. longer dated yields being lower than shorter dated) is a harbinger of recession. However, opinion is divided on whether this will prove the case on this occasion and how long after the inversion a recession may occur, with many economists saying it could be as much as 18 months to two years ahead. Some economists also suggest that, given the historic levels of monetary accommodation and liquidity introduced into the financial markets, the relationship between an inverted yield curve and economic recession is less reliable than it once was.

No matter the outcome, the central banks still face the unenviable position of having to prevent expectations of higher prices from setting in while avoiding an economic meltdown. For now, all indications are that the developed economies, particularly the US, are as robust as they were coming into 2022. The latest purchasing manager indices, as shown in the graph below, show that only China’s PMI fell below the 50 level into contraction territory. The US and Europe manufacturing PMIs remain well above that level.

China’s challenges

After leading the world out of the initial phase of the pandemic, China now faces a host of challenges which have seen its economy and stock market performance diverge from the rest of the world. The Chinese government’s focus has been on trying to repair the damage it did to investor certainty after clamping down on tech and online education companies last year. This comes at a time when it is up against a resurgence of Covid infections. Nonetheless, the government is still confident that it will achieve the above 5.5% growth target (see graph below) that it set for the country and, after providing stimulus to the market, has shown an intention to do what it needs to do to get there.

Outlook

The Russia/Ukraine geopolitical shock has brought increased uncertainty to stock markets. However, history has shown the dangers of making negative long-term judgements based on short-term concerns. The graph below shows how the US stock market at least has continued to climb notwithstanding the extremely volatile conditions at times since 2013.

Stock markets recover and rally after macro-economic or geopolitical shocks, and it is during these periods that the best investment opportunities often arise.

US consensus earnings expectations for the S&P500 have moderated from their exceptional levels last year, but they remain positive, as shown in the graph below. This plots the month-by-month progression of S&P 500 earnings estimates, which have been moving sideways for the past few months. While the war in Europe continues to devastate the lives of millions, there are nonetheless many companies across the world for which the financial impact is minimal and many others that offer the potential for a significant rebound following indiscriminate selling.

The portfolios’ March performance is as followed:

Regards,

Euro Pacific Advisors Management Team

Published: March 07, 2022

Relevant Strategies

• International Balanced
• International Growth
• Natural Resources
• Gold and Precious Metals
• Peter Schiff

Our Commentary

Market overview

The anticipation of Russia invading Ukraine knocked stock markets down in February. Share indices fell between 4% and 8% in the days leading up to the invasion on February 24, but then recovered as the initial sanctions announced were seen as being less detrimental to markets than had been feared.

The NASDAQ was the hardest hit, slumping 7.7% in the days ahead of the invasion and standing 14% lower this year. Many European indices are also showing double digit declines, the exception being the FTSE 100 Index which is broadly level. There are increasingly attractive opportunities in European equities with valuations now so low that the risk/reward profile is better than at any time since the financial crisis of 2008.

As expected, Russian assets and the ruble were hard hit by Putin’s decision to go to war, with the ruble-denominated stock market index shedding 54% in the first two hours of trading on the news of the invasion. This time the impact on the Russian financial market and economy is likely to be a far cry from Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 when, after an immediate decline, the stock market went on to rally for the following nine years.

The price of Brent crude oil reacted strongly to the crisis, pushing through the $100 a barrel to $105. Dutch TTF Gas Futures prices also soared 70% in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, given Europe’s reliance on Russian gas supplies.

The war and inflation

The conflict is expected to lift global inflation even further through its impact on a large part of the world’s broader commodity and agriculture complex. Russia is a one of the world’s largest oil producers and gains from gold, inflation-linked bonds and global property are partially offsetting declines in equity markets.

The Russia-Ukraine war ousted the US interest rate hiking cycle as the core theme driving financial market sentiment for most of February. However, investors continued to speculate on the future trajectory of interest rates, now factoring in the possible impact of the hostilities in the short term. While markets had begun to price in an aggressive 50-basis point increase in the Federal Reserve fund rate in March, with up to seven rate hikes thereafter, Fed officials have talked down the prospect of a heavy hitting initial rate hike and the market is now pricing in a total of seven rate hikes this year.

Opinion is divided over whether the war will lock in inflation rates at their current highs due to the domino effect higher commodity prices and supply disruptions will have on prices in general. In the last week of the month, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, core PCE, came in slightly ahead of expectations, at 5.2% versus 5.1% but the broad headline rate of 6.1% is a long way ahead of the Fed’s target for average inflation of 2%. The Bloomberg graph below highlights how the US inflation peak could be delayed based on rising oil prices, with CPI forecast to exceed 8% if oil reaches $120 a barrel and to hit around 8% if it remains between $90 and $95 a barrel.

Markets are not at this stage anticipating inflation rates to stay high for the long-term. The price of inflation-linked bonds and derivative contracts in the US reflect the belief that inflation will average 2.5% for the next decade.

Implications of Ukraine crisis

One of the main implications of the Russian assault on Ukraine is expected to be a marked increase in defense spending across the world, which would reverse the steady decline in defense spending as a percentage of GDP globally since the mid-1980s. The implications of such an increase would be that governments would need to re-route expenditure away from social security and infrastructure spending at a cost to the average civilian.

While it is too early to tell whether Russia will achieve its aim of taking over Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s decision to walk away from diplomatic solutions is expected to alter the geopolitical landscape for the worse in the long term.

Russia and China have been moving away from a reliance on the dollar, with the proportion of trade payments in dollars between the two now only 16% versus 97% in 2014. Russia now has more of its reserves in gold than in dollars.

Developed world countries have introduced stiff sanctions on Russia, Putin, his foreign secretary and the oligarchs in the wake of the invasion. These range from trade sanctions, travel bans, freezing the assets of the wealthy and, most recently, removing most of the country’s access to the SWIFT payment system and freezing the foreign reserves it holds overseas. However, these are not likely to have an immediate impact on the country and some of them are extremely difficult to implement, particularly with regards to sanctions on Russian individuals’ assets.

Of most concern is Europe’s huge reliance on gas supplies from Russia – a situation that is not going to change in the short to medium term. The region has invested heavily in renewable energy sources but is probably decades away from becoming self-reliant on green energy sources. Germany has nonetheless officially halted certification of the Nordstream 2 pipeline, which has been the subject of ongoing negotiation between Russia and Europe.

As a result, Russia has been spared sanctions on energy supplies, which alleviated the impact on the stock market as seen in the dollar-based RTS index of liquid Russian shares in the graph above.

Outlook

Since our exposure to the Russian market is negligible, we are not concerned about its performance in the short and medium term. However, it’s essential to address the potential impacts of the conflict on important factors like inflation and the global economy.

Bloomberg has mapped out different economic scenarios going from bad to worse as a result of the Ukraine crisis.

Initial indications would suggest the first is unfolding, with Russian oil and gas still available and markets on the up off after their steep sell off. In this event, the Fed is seen as likely to engage in a milder monetary policy tightening regime than currently priced into markets.

Lastly, a scenario in which Europeans are denied access to Russian gas and the world to its oil could well trigger the stagflation outcomes that have been the subject of so much debate during the pandemic. Inflation would become even more of a problem and central bank action would stall growth, perhaps resulting in a hard landing for the global economy.

The portfolios’ February performance is as followed:

Regards,

Euro Pacific Advisors Management Team

Published: February 08, 2022

Relevant Strategies

• International Balanced
• International Growth
• Natural Resources
• Gold and Precious Metals
• Peter Schiff

Our Commentary

Market overview

It has been a rough start for the year. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia have become increasingly acute, but it is nervous anticipation of the US Federal Reserve withdrawing monetary policy support that has been the main cause of a spike in financial market volatility.

The world’s so-called fear gauge, the CBOE VIX, climbed to last January’s high of 33 during the month but remains much lower than its peak of 66 when the market experienced its COVID 19-related bear market crash in March 2020.

After a bumpy 2021, stock markets ended the new year’s first month in the red. The NASDAQ index was 15% lower at one point, on a rotation from the growth stocks that form most of the index into value stocks. The S&P 500 ended down 5%, China’s SSE Composite was down by 6% and the Japan Nikkei 225 by 7%. The UK FTSE 100 Index was one of the few developed markets not to end lower but the mid-cap index was down by 7%.

Bond prices also suffered and the price of long-dated indices registered declines of up to 7%. Within the typical portfolio, bond exposure has been reduced and is generally short-dated and/or inflation-linked to minimize interest rate sensitivity, increasing other risk factors to generate returns.

The gold price has remained steady while the index of a broad basket of commodities added a further 9% as the oil price soared.

Rate hikes question

The jury is still out as to how many interests rate rise we can expect from the Fed this year, but the number implied by derivative markets has increased steadily from two last year to three and then four. After the first Fed meeting, investors envisage a scenario in which there are five successive rate hikes, coming at each Fed meeting from March.

At the first meeting of the year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was careful to emphasise that there was no preset course for rate hikes this year and that the Fed would respond nimbly, “led by the incoming data and the evolving outlook.”

What is clear is that the Fed doesn’t want a repeat of the 2013 taper tantrum. It is going to tread carefully so as not to derail financial markets or the global economic recovery by moving too fast – the outcome financial markets are most jittery about at the outset of 2022.

Rotation from growth stocks into the COVID laggards

Rising interest rates are seen as favoring stocks that offer value based on their net assets over those exhibiting strong growth. This is because many investors and analysts use net-present-value models to value stocks. The rationale is that growth stocks look less attractive on this measure when interest rates rise because their expected earnings are in the distant future and therefore worth less. In this scenario, higher inflation is positive for value strategies because growth companies may benefit less from price hikes, while value companies that have actual earnings can boost profit margins by raising prices.

However, rising interest rates have not been shown to have a long-term effect on equity prices, arguably because a higher discount rate is counter-balanced by a stronger growth rate in cash flows. There is no historical correlation between rate rises and equity market performance and there have been many periods of buoyant stock markets with rising rates. Investors seem nervous now because many have only ever witnessed low rates and strong returns.

Outlook

Interest rates will rise as quickly as expected if inflation remains sticky – a situation that will depend on whether:

• Demand continues to rise unabated
• Supply constraints remain an ongoing challenge
• Labour costs continue increasing, setting in motion a wage-price spiral that poses great risk to inflation expectations

We anticipate further volatility in growth stocks in the short term, but the trends accelerated by COVID remain very much in place and when the dust settles there will certainly be opportunities.

Financial markets and the real economy don’t always move in tandem. It is likely 2022 will continue to produce volatile markets as investors fret about whether central banks will remove stimulus too slowly or too quickly, whether inflation will remain too high or fall quickly towards deflation, and whether China will be able to reach an economic glide path without too much turbulence.

Additionally, we think investors may have underestimated the earnings power of many companies who have responded to COVID and supply disruptions with improved delivery of their products and services. Decent profit growth and undemanding valuations in many areas should enable swathes of the equity market to produce positive total returns. Furthermore, many consumers are sitting on piles of cash from fiscal stimulus and capital expenditure, and this factor may fuel further economic and investment activities in the short and medium term.

The portfolios’ January performance is as followed:

Regards,

Euro Pacific Advisors Management Team

Published: January 14, 2022

Relevant Strategies

• International Balanced
• International Growth
• Natural Resources
• Gold and Precious Metals
• Peter Schiff

Our Commentary

Market overview

Most stock markets gained ground in December to wrap up a year, in which equities went from strength to strength while bonds and gold lost value. The S&P 500 rallied a staggering 27% during the year, European and UK market gained over 15% while China was the standout underperformer, sliding 5% after Chinese regulatory clampdowns raised investor concerns about the world’s second largest economy.

US companies had strong third quarter earnings and the fourth quarter is expected to be equally impressive. Earnings growth for the year is expected to be 45%, significantly greater than the 22% growth anticipated a year ago. However, with the S&P500 price to earnings ratio at 28.9, the jury is out on whether similar increases can be achieved this year.

The sectors that outperformed in 2021 were energy – which had a runaway streak from mid-September – financials, real estate and information technology. According to Bank of America, about 65% of the Nasdaq’s gains can be attributed to five tech stocks – Microsoft, Google, Apple, Nvidia and Tesla.

Macroeconomic concerns remain

The stellar stock market increases occurred against an uncertain macroeconomic picture, which has faced global supply challenges, rising inflation and central bank moves to start withdrawing trillions of dollars of liquidity that have been propping up the financial markets and buoying investor sentiment.

A significant rise in consumer demand for goods, Covid-related bottlenecks caused by port shutdowns in China and other logistical hiccups led to supply constraints which fed rising prices. These also saw microchips in short supply, with the impact felt across the manufacturing sector and auto companies the hardest hit.

Inflation took over as public enemy number one after initial hopes that supply would catch up with demand after a few months. Considered transitory by most mainstream economists and the Federal Reserve for most of the year, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell formally put the term out to pasture in early December, acknowledging that inflation was likely to remain higher for longer.

As a result, the Federal Reserve is increasing the pace of its monetary policy tightening to ensure inflation expectations don’t become entrenched and set in motion a self-fulfilling cycle. The central bank began tapering in November and now expects the process to be over earlier than its original June target date. Chairman Powell also indicated that financial markets could expect up to three rate hikes in 2022.

In the UK, the Governor of the Bank of England guided the financial markets to expect a rate hike in November but did not deliver, causing significant bond market volatility. Interest rates were raised in December. The European Central Bank remains more dovish.

Central banks will have to maintain the delicate balance between keeping inflation expectations anchored and allowing for a supportive environment for economic growth. As negative supply shocks push inflation higher, they threaten to set off a self-fulfilling cycle of ever higher inflation, which could begin to chip away at demand.

While the global economic recovery continued, the World Bank raised concerns about the uneven rates of recovery, as shown in the graph below. High income countries have managed to recover at a healthy rate and are expected to continue on their upward trajectory. In contrast, low income countries have lagged.

The OECD expects a rebound in global economic growth to 5.6% this year and 4.5% in 2022, before settling back to 3.2% in 2023, close to the rates seen prior to the pandemic.

Omicron’s appearance in December raised economic concerns but hopes that that measures to limit the spread may be more restrained than for previous variants meant financial markets recovered ground and the oil price, which came off $10 a barrel on the day Omicron hit the news, recovered rapidly.

Gas prices rise due to shortages

Since Autumn, gas prices have spiraled in response to global supply shortages. Record high natural gas prices in Europe and Asia were spurred by significant demand ahead of the northern hemisphere winter and unanticipated shortfalls in existing renewable energy production. They were also affected by the geopolitical forces stemming from what is seen as Russia’s attempt to force Europe’s hand by restricting supplies so that it will approve the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

Europe relies significantly on natural gas from Russia and now has to compete with South East Asia for liquid natural gas exports from the US, where there is pressure to halt exports. Most economies, including China, are likely to transition to gas in their journey to becoming net-zero economies and thus demand is only likely to intensify over the next decade.

Portfolio Actions

Despite December gains, we think markets will be under pressure going to the first quarter of 2022. A few media camps have discussed about the possibility of a market correction in January. We think the possibility of such event’s occurrence is low.

The portfolios’ composition remains unchanged for the month, while we are currently maintaining a comfortable degree of cash in all portfolios (<10%) in case investment opportunities arise. Our December and annual performance are as followed:

Regards,

Euro Pacific Advisors Management Team

Published: December 07, 2021

Relevant Strategies

• International Balanced
• International Growth
• Natural Resources
• Gold and Precious Metals
• Peter Schiff

Our Commentary

Market overview

In a month which saw the emergence of a new acronym: VFI (Variants, Federal Reserve and Inflation), stock markets were volatile, achieving new highs early in the month before being knocked back by US inflation coming in at a 31-year high, and then slumping as news of the new Covid-19 Omicron variant emerged. The S&P 500 Index slipped marginally into the red, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nikkei 225 fell 4%. The UK FTSE 100 Index and the Euro Stoxx 50 both declined a little over 2%. All developed equity markets remain in the black for the year to date, though, while most bond markets are weaker.

Equity markets remain underpinned by corporate earnings growth, with Macy’s, Kohl’s and Nvidia the most notable advances after posting market-beating numbers. Overall, growth indicators remain positive.

Meanwhile, energy concerns abated as President Biden indicated that the US may release more reserves, and pressure built on OPEC to add supply to the market. The retracement in prices accelerated as news of the Omicron variant became public and countries began shutting their borders.

Fed timetable for tapering asset purchases

The main policy development came with the Federal Reserve announcing it would begin tapering its asset purchases with a view to completing the process by June next year.

The chart below indicates the pace of tapering as anticipated at the meeting in early November, although subsequent comments indicated this may be accelerated. Equities and bonds responded positively but then became concerned about whether persistently high inflation would prompt the central bank to start raising interest rates more aggressively than their guidance suggested. There is a danger that, with demand still buoyant, supply issues exacerbated by new restrictions to prevent the spread of the new Covid-19 variant will further fuel rises in inflation.

Carbon credit markets in focus after COP26

The UK hosted the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in early November and this gave new life to the carbon credit market with a number of agreements made on the rules that govern it.

Background

The carbon credit market has its roots in the 1997 UN Kyoto Protocol, the first time the world’s governments agreed on the need to cut carbon emissions. Called the Clean Development Mechanism, it facilitated the reduction of industry and country emissions through the trading of carbon credits. Today, there are two markets: the voluntary exchange of carbon credits and the involuntary carbon compliance market.

The former allows companies and individuals to buy carbon credits to compensate for their carbon emitting activities. These credits are then invested into carbon-catching activities aimed at reducing the level of emissions by planting forests and other activities. The global standard is that one carbon credit represents one ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) removed from the atmosphere.

How it works

The carbon compliance market is otherwise known as the cap-and-trade market. Governments set caps on the amount of CO2e companies in high-emitting sectors (e.g., oil, energy, transportation) are allowed to emit before they are required to buy carbon credits. The intention behind this is to help companies make a gradual transition to a sustainable, carbon-free future, avoiding the disruption and cost (to company and economy) that overnight change would cause. Emitting companies have time to transition their business, while the projects in which the carbon credits are invested balance the equation, capturing carbon and neutralizing the emissions impact of the company buying the credits.

When companies reach their cap, they can buy and sell carbon credits on regulated exchanges. According to the World Bank, there are around 64 carbon compliance markets currently in operation, the largest of which are in the EU, China, Australia and Canada. The US has no overarching federal approach to requiring companies to comply by reducing emissions. Instead, states have been free to take an independent approach, with California the only one with a formal cap-and-trade market.

Strengths and weaknesses

The current cap-and-trade system is vulnerable to fraud, double counting and greenwashing. In the early days of the carbon credit market, white collar criminals took advantage of tax loopholes by fraudulently claiming VAT receipts through complex arrangements of companies in different jurisdictions.

More recently, companies have been found double counting the carbon credit, once in the country in which they operate and again in the country where the credit is bought. There is little oversight of projects that are supposedly reducing emissions. For instance, some tree planting projects have been found to cut down the trees after gaining the credit.

To reduce the likelihood of nefarious schemes, regulators are eager to globalize the carbon credit market. However, there are challenges in agreeing parameters such as time frame, pricing, measurement and degree of transparency.

Opportunities

Notwithstanding the challenges, the future for the carbon credit market looks bright. According to a September report by Ecosystem Marketplace, in the first eight months of 2021, voluntary carbon markets had already posted a near-60% increase in value from last year to more than $1 billion. With market volumes and value rising strongly, more speculators are purchasing credits. This then becomes a source of finance for green projects around the world. A tightening of processes and rules at COP26 could open the door to billions of dollars of investment over the next decade.

A recent Visual Capitalist infographic highlights the potential 15-fold growth in carbon offsets by 2030:

Outlook

VFI (Variants, Federal Reserve and Inflation) will continue to have influence over market sentiment and price action in the medium term as they have always been since the beginning of this year.

In the medium term, we think the equity market will remain buoyant with the support of solid corporate earnings growth and the likelihood of a strong shopping season in December despite supply chain shortage remains a concern.

The carbon compliance market, which is projected to grow to 50 billion dollar by 2030, is a lucrative investible opportunity that needs attention from savvy investors. We will explore this topic further in future commentaries.

The portfolios’ November performance is as followed:

Regards,

Euro Pacific Advisors Management Team

Published: November 09, 2021

Relevant Strategies

• International Balanced
• International Growth
• Natural Resources
• Gold and Precious Metals
• Peter Schiff

Our Commentary

Market overview

Most equity markets rebounded in October despite a multitude of concerns. Quantitative easing is still going at a pace unimaginable a few years ago and trillions of dollars of new stimulus measures look set to pour fuel onto an inflationary fire running at an annualised 5.4% in the USA. Supply chains are squeezed as never before in peacetime and wages are rising rapidly, probably far faster than the official figures.

And yet, the S&P 500 is at an all-time high, a third higher than it was before the pandemic. Many believe the S&P 500 is expensive – despite a good third quarter earnings season. The US bond market is, arguably, also expensive (although cheaper than it was) because there are mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin raising interest rates sooner rather than later despite continuing to forecast that the pick up in inflation is transient. Global benchmark US Treasury bond yields increased to 1.6% and the US Federal Reserve is still expected to begin its tapering program in November.

UK gilts signaling sharp rate hikes

Following September Monetary Policy Committee meeting’s narrative, The Bank of England appears decidedly more hawkish. Governor Andrew Bailey has warned that interest rates must soon rise to stem inflation currently running at 3.1%. However, there is clearly a political desire for wages to rise as part of a “high wage, high growth economy”.

The London money markets are pricing in a rate hike to 0.25%, from 0.1%, at the Bank’s next meeting on November 4th, and the price movement in gilts reflects expectations of a further move to 1% by May. This seems like an overreaction, but may reflect the fear that the Bank of England is on the brink of a policy error.

Assuming the Bank of England does raise interest rates to 0.25% this week, does the market really believe that it won’t wait to see the impact on the consumer in the run up to Christmas as well as the effect on the housing market?

The Bank of England’s message also throws up another problem which goes against current market expectations. The conventional wisdom was that, long before there was ‘talk about talking about’ interest rate hikes, quantitative easing stimulus would be wound down. At the very least, the market expected a timetable for stimulus easing.

U.S corporate earnings growth remains resilient

Valuations in developed world stock markets remain extended but market analysts are generally confident that equities will continue to gain ground on strong earnings performance.

Financial companies was the first sector to announce third quarter earnings. Prospects for the sector are viewed favorably — alongside energy — with commodity prices, particularly oil and gas prices, having gained considerable ground in recent weeks on worrying shortages.

The vast majority of S&P 500 companies that have so far reported have exceeded profit expectations with 88% of financial companies beating forecasts by a wide 21% margin.

Supply shortages and slowing growth dampen optimism

Europeans are bracing themselves for a cold winter based on gas shortages and sky-high prices. In the UK, panic buying of fuel by drivers has resulted in price increases and China has had to contend with a significant shortage of coal, which has necessitated energy rationing in the industrial sector and some residential blackouts.

Supply shortages and delays continue to dog the transport of goods to where they are needed, affecting sectors such as electronics, autos, meat, medicines, and household products. Several US companies have warned of rising costs due to supply chain disruptions, admitting these could have an impact on earnings. Companies that have been least affected include those that have wide product margins and pricing power, including tech and healthcare companies.

The supply constraints stem from a mix of transport restrictions related to the pandemic but also under investment in transport infrastructure and electronics production and a reluctance of workers to return to high-risk Covid-19 sectors.

An emerging concern has been evidence of a slowdown in growth in some of the developed markets production come in much weaker than the market was expecting. This was attributed to hefty declines in the mining and utilities sectors due to one-off weather-related factors.

China’s GDP also came in well below expectations and it is likely to remain under pressure given its energy challenges. The world’s second biggest economy has also seen a rise in Covid infections. These factors may dampen economic activities should they continue.

Inflation revisited

A lack of shipping containers, port closures and delays, a shortage of truck drivers, lack of computer chip production capacity, electricity shortages in China and India, and rising global commodity prices are all likely to contribute to global inflation rising by 1.5 percentage points in Q3 2021, according to OECD estimates.

Euromonitor forecasts global inflation to reach 4% in 2021 before falling back to 3.6% in 2022. In our opinion, a positive year for equity and bond markets in 2022 depends on any further increase being limited.

Outlook

UK rate hikes

Raising the prospect of hiking interest rates before any discussion of the Bank of England’s plans for quantitative easing sends a confusing message to markets. Is inflation temporary? Would higher interest rates be temporary? We all know that the Bank of England can, if it wants, afford to be nimbler than her US cousin, whose policy turns like a fully laden oil tanker. Is this part of their thinking? If it is, then the bond market may have got it wrong in pricing for aggressive UK rate hikes.

Slowing economic growth

Euromonitor research shows that Covid-19 remains the primary economic concern going forward. It ascribes a 28% probability to a pessimistic Covid-19 scenario in which more infectious and vaccine-resistant variants result in multiple economic lockdowns in 2022.

It also points out that global economic growth has deteriorated since mid-2021. Euromonitor expects global real GDP to increase by 5.7% in 2021 (a 0.2 percentage point downgrade since July) and has significantly downgraded 2021 growth expectations for US, China, Asia Pacific economies, although its expectations for the Eurozone are up.

The portfolios’ October performance is as followed:

Regards,

Euro Pacific Advisors Management Team